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From The Washington Post Engineering team.

Results for #math

How The Washington Post Estimates Outstanding Votes for the 2020 Presidential Election

By Lenny Bronner, Jeremy Bowers and John Cherian

The Washington Post uses expected vote models to estimate how many votes remain for each candidate on election night. We built distinct models for the 2019 Virginia general election and the 2020 Democratic primaries. Today, we would like to introduce our third model, which we will use to estimate remaining votes during the 2020 general election.

How The Washington Post Estimates Outstanding Votes During Primaries

By Lenny Bronner

For the primaries in 2020, The Washington Post has developed a model that estimates the candidates vote counts based on early results. These estimates update throughout the night as new results come in. We do this by comparing the current results to the last comparable election and see what the voters may have done this time. We also compute uncertainty estimates for our model. Read more about how our model works and where its pitfalls lie.

How The Washington Post Estimates Turnout on Election Nights

By Lenny Bronner

For the Virginia general election in 2019, The Washington Post has developed a model that estimates turnout for each state House and state Senate district before the election begins and then updates these estimates throughout the night as precincts report. We collected data from previous elections that most closely resembled this election night and used these to form our base estimates for turnout in each state House and state Senate district. A novel feature of our model is that it should respond to precincts that have already reported and update its estimates based on this new information.